It's what led Dunne to resign. Interesting to see the media blackout on Advance NZ in the polls. The covid-19 pandemic has meant a lot of changes for New Zealand. Gonna try and bring back the slaughter weapons?"). And Ardern is ahead of Collins by a larger margin. The highlight is the golden Goldsmith possibility. Almost 600,000 Kiwis have already voted, and you can join them! Surprised me the other day how many early vote now. Where do the parties stand on open government? They seem to know stuff that the pollsters don’t. As it happened: Election 2020 concludes; what next for New Zealand's political parties? She seems to have done enough to turn even more people off of National. It doesn't get much more emphatic than that. “The people have spoken and I am absolutely overwhelmed ... Māori Party Co-leader and Te Tai Hauāuru candidate Debbie Ngarewa-Packer is disappointed with the Te Tai Hauāuru results but is congratulating Rawiri Waititi on his likely win in Waiāriki and is celebrating the probable return of the Māori Party to Parliament. Greens look like they will go back to being pointless again. Or statics expertise, for that matter? A Reid Research poll, conducted July 16-24 – after the second leadership change – gave Labour a thumping 60.9% (up 4.4% since the last Reid Research poll in early May). The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio says a total of 264 groups and individuals have successfully applied for the Pacific Aotearoa Community COVID-19 Recovery Fund, that will support Pacific communities drive their own COVID-19 recovery strategies, initiatives, and actions. That’s a majority at 62 seats, even if we give all the lost votes to ACT. The systems ... More public buildings will be supported by the Government to upgrade to run on clean energy, the Minister for Climate Change James Shaw announced today. Let's see… you're definitely right about polling over 50% consistently, so I retract and concede, (I've been monitoring closely since about 2014 so that's what I usually talk about when I do it from memory, whoops!) Has it been trending down in earlier polls as well? Yes, Northland's call is probably a direct result of me picking the Strong Transfer model from the UK, which is adjusted to prevent undercounting Liberal Democrats, over a simpler tranfer model, as the Strong Transfer Model protects some of New Zealand First's vote as a strong regional turnout above party vote lines, but doesn't do the same thing to National as noticably. So Twirker Party isn't a fair description, unless twirking is yet another bizarre behaviour I haven't heard of. Anyway it doesn't square with reliable insider information. Only when he sticks his head up his a#$@. Rapidly growing sectors will benefit from a $990,000 Māori Trades and Training Fund investment which will see Wellington jobseekers supported into work, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. The South Taranaki museum, a New Plymouth distillery and a Pasifika building firm will benefit from a Government investment totalling more than $1 million, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones says. 4.8% of 36.9%, which amounts to +1.8%. Despite a massive money If re-elected, the Green Party would work towards net zero energy new buildings by 2030 in order to accelerate the transition to a low carbon future for Aotearoa and a cleaner, safer planet for our kids and grandkids. The past decade has been tough for our second largest city. 2020 with a sample size of 1000 eligible voters and a margin I am still trying to work out why it is so bad to be a gun owner given how many there are in NZ. A swathe of MPs gone and some wondering why they bothered to roll Bridges when they did. The covid-19 pandemic has meant a lot of changes for New Zealand. I would say that we're already in Tactical Vote territory, and what we're actually getting is centre-right swing voters tactically changing intention to vote for Labour, because they don't want a left-wing government moderated by a more left-wing coalition partner. Of course theres the Daylight…oh, and the Mirrors : ). The Green Party is committed to reduce the waiting times people in mental distress have to put up with before they receive attention and get treatment. So obviously lots of weighing up of policies has gone into his voting decisions. A significant minority of voters will dissent, however.I will be one ... On the eve of the election, the Prime Minister wants New Zealanders to know the Greens will be given a very small seat at the table, quite literally. What Have We Learned in Thirty Years of Covering Climate Change? There, on the corner of Queen and Darby Streets, a man was in the process of getting two kids to ... Over the weekend, National unveiled its latest desperate effort to try and gain some attention: Assuming we don’t count Bird of the Year, last week was my first time voting in a New Zealand election. Election Night Numbers: Electoral Commission Results, Poll: Labour On 46%, National 31%, While Greens And ACT Both On 8%, Tonight's political poll puts Labour on 46 percent and National on 31 percent with just one day remaining until election day. Ardern reassures voters that Greens’ negotiating table will be a tiny, humiliating one, A Waste of Time: The Hundred “Best” Fantasy Books, https://time.com/collection/100-best-fantasy-books/, Jacinda Ardern tries to defend her policy of doing nothing while in government, already saying that they will fail to meet them, Another issue Labour is ignoring its voters over, nearly half of all voters - and 60% of labour supporters - support a wealth tax, A flaw in our electoral transparency regime II, a flaw in our electoral transparency regime, receiving a quarter of a million dollars in donations which will never have to be decalred, explicitly soliciting donations from rich, Josh Van Veen: The Psychology of Ardernism, Two days to go, 12 questions still worth asking, Possible inter-satellite collision on Friday, Flailing last grasps bring lasting gasps in the NZ General Election…, Skeptical Science New Research for Week #41, 2020. John and Hilary Barry were in charge of the catchy ‘1 News Your Vote 2020. percent. This election, Labour and National have set out very different proposals for growing our economy and supporting New Zealanders through our COVID recovery. still short of the numbers to govern. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300117812/election-2020-if-jacinda-ardern-supports-cannabis-legalisation-she-should-say-so. ... Green Party co-leader James Shaw says he has spoken to Jacinda Ardern since last night's win for Labour, but they haven't discussed any possibilities of forming the next government. “As part of our precautionary approach and strategy of constant review, we’re tightening the requirements around international aircrew,” Chris Hipkins said. Might be as well for other parties that New Zealand uses MMP: on those poll numbers, in a FPTP system with single-member electorates (which is what they used to have), the number of non-Labour MPs would probably be in single digits (and quite possibly zero). Polls: federal Morgan, YouGov on COVID-19, WA miscellany, https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12351748, #12 Wednesday, July 29th, 2020 – 10:24 am, Australian Capital Territory election live, US election minus three weeks; NZ election minus two days. The Green Party says Labour’s commitment to protecting kauri is a good start, but the Greens would go further and faster to keep our kauri standing. Nats on 40 was wishful thinking, and the delay of a month to give them a fighting chance hasn't helped so far. They simply prevent farmers doing whatever they want to our rivers. If it can’t be managed down, it’s hard to see how it can be met. But that's no reason to trust them now when the methodologies to keep polling accurate have drastically changed and require internet panels for the best results, and that's also no reason to trust his figures when he says he's got National closer to 30%: unless he releases the full party vote report for several polls in a row, it's absolute hearsay and potentially cherry-picking. Newshub-Reid Research Poll Shows National Rising But Labour Still Governing Alone Sunday, 27 September 2020, 6:03 pm Press Release: Mediaworks Was about half last time. Written By: I have been told that Eugenie Sage has done an excellent job at Conservation – some good achievements with no cock-ups or even controversy. The systems ... More public buildings will be supported by the Government to upgrade to run on clean energy, the Minister for Climate Change James Shaw announced today. I actually bothered to look at Andre’s link and there are no three in the top nine saying they are gun owners. Life is more or less normal apart from the constant cry to open the borders. New Zealand seats are allocated proportionally to parties that either win at least 5% of the national vote or a single-member seat. Greens look like they will go back to being pointless again. One last chance to boost your own policies or knock down your opponents. The world recognises the qualities of Jacinda Ardern and her team, and the qualities of New Zealanders during this crisis. . But if she gets re-elected, it will be by voters who support one. The big issue hanging over Oz which will transcend the Covid situation will be the climate change bogey. But only if the last poll was accurate. Your email address will not be published. There is no denying that now. If there are no community transmissions in New Zealand before the September 19 election, Labour is likely to win easily. Results for Morrison in blue and Bill Shorten/Anthony Albanese in red. New Zealand seats are allocated proportionally to parties that either win at least 5% of the national vote or a single-member seat. Oh, hang on, there was … and it was due to happen last week. And that I'd better learn to deal with it. Your email address will not be published. Ardern’s done a fantastic job and deserves another term. Or worse… there are some electorates where Labour simply can't gain an extra 30% due to saturation… which means the biggest swings have to be in safe Nat seats. You seem to be new here so here’s some advice on basic rules of this site. National were already calling it a rogue poll before it’s even announced. The turning point for National was replacing Simon Bridges, the party's candidate for Whangaparāoa Mark Mitchell says. What is it you disagree with for owning a gun? Melbourne is almost out of lockdown. I do agree with you Scott – casting my mind back to the MMP campaign, it wasn't just Rod Donald's leadership, it was collective dynamism to create a better political path to the future for Aotearoa. A, When two people whose identities we all know but cannot say publicly due to name suppression were charged with "Obtaining by Deception" over routing donations to NZ First through the NZ First Foundation, Winston Peters. Frankly I have no intention of trying to accurately call individual electorates using any kind of party vote shift model, the idea here is to just have a more accurate basis for figuring out who'd be "in" or "out" on the party lists so you know who you get if you shift or maintain your party vote in a certain place. Labour polled 50.1 per cent, while National is on 29.6 per cent, according to the new figures. Follow our blog for the latest updates. A mandate isn't just about how strongly you're supported, it's about which ideas you campaigned on to gain that support and whether you have enough support for the ideas to make it reasonable to pass them individually in government. can you explain how they got a 40% swing from GP to Lab, given 6.27% in 2017 and 6.5% in this poll?
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